Former SCEE President Chris Deering, who was speaking at the Edinburgh Interactive Festival today, has made a bold prediction stating that Sony will catch up with Nintendo and share a joint victory for this generation of gaming. He claims that this will have Microsoft bringing up the rear in third place. The year 2011 is when he says this will all begin to crystalize.
Deering didn’t just come to this conclusion on his own. He has been looking at Screen Digest IDG data, the growth of hi-def markets, and the “grey gamer” markets. He has also taken into account game engine and Wi-Fi expansion. Deering is claiming that the install hardware base will rise from 316 million to 500 million over the next three years; and the combination of Sony and Nintendo will lead to two “big mega-powers.”
His outlook for Microsoft is much lower. He is stating that Xbox 360 will enjoy a “decent” growth with an install base of 40 million by 2011. For comparisons sake; Deering has posed numbers for other game systems as well; 150 million DS units installed, 80 million Wiis, 70 million PS3s, 90 million PS2s and another 70 million PSPs.
What do you all think? Is he being a bit to ambitious? Is he right on the money? Do you think the PS3 will catch up and pass the Xbox 360? Will there be two “mega-powers”? Let us know.